Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 0.195607 0.234586 0.281270 0.341889 0.419389 0.516333 0.648671
2025-05-18 0.128704 0.167110 0.217978 0.291822 0.398937 0.553033 0.799983
2025-05-25 0.089458 0.123518 0.172361 0.250045 0.375546 0.580115 0.961649
2025-06-01 0.068506 0.100044 0.148722 0.233218 0.385146 0.667085 1.288356
2025-06-08 0.054105 0.083036 0.130747 0.220560 0.399556 0.777996 1.774696
2025-06-15 0.044208 0.071016 0.118043 0.213734 0.424990 0.936537 2.579195
2025-06-22 0.036724 0.061472 0.107406 0.207957 0.453146 1.134781 3.854115
2025-06-29 0.029986 0.051880 0.094425 0.193399 0.456262 1.283551 5.355228
2025-07-06 0.022714 0.039969 0.074306 0.156776 0.386089 1.159221 5.464497
2025-07-13 0.019587 0.035507 0.068543 0.152578 0.406789 1.383646 8.369840
2025-07-20 0.017475 0.032674 0.065636 0.154819 0.450987 1.775787 14.826536
2025-07-27 0.015840 0.030526 0.063792 0.159581 0.510180 2.363681 29.532458
2025-08-03 0.014064 0.027877 0.060477 0.160147 0.561998 3.095434 63.356675
2025-08-10 0.012255 0.024834 0.055504 0.153927 0.584051 3.750471 127.827605
2025-08-17 0.010656 0.022004 0.050457 0.145701 0.593028 4.402883 263.843678
2025-08-24 0.009632 0.020359 0.048200 0.146506 0.653539 5.931727 935.189397
2025-08-31 0.008755 0.018914 0.046172 0.147530 0.721724 8.135623 5404.420035
2025-09-07 0.008046 0.017770 0.044743 0.150529 0.812622 11.754491 128704.993529
2025-09-14 0.007410 0.016701 0.043292 0.153010 0.910524 17.211400 NaN
2025-09-21 0.006687 0.015287 0.040450 0.148107 0.947055 22.147236 NaN
2025-09-28 0.005670 0.012951 0.034228 0.125071 0.796402 18.387044 NaN
2025-10-05 0.005243 0.012162 0.032870 0.124897 0.862828 25.785830 NaN
2025-10-12 0.004947 0.011689 0.032453 0.129321 0.989643 42.175703 NaN